Dear ACS Families,
Yesterday we had an informative visit with Dr. Tony Nemer, Assistant Professor of Structural Geology at American University of Beirut and ACS parent. Dr. Nemer has documented the history of Levant earthquakes, going back nearly 12,000 years, and he gave us an overview of our regional geology from Turkey to the Sinai to Cyprus. The big take away is this: Lebanon is in an active seismic zone, but the fault that caused the recent earthquake in Turkey did not appear to activate the African / Anatolian plate boundary 80 km offshore toward Cyprus. That's good news, as the 7.2 magnitude earthquake and subsequent tidal wave that hit Beirut 1472 years ago in 551 CE likely originated from that fault.
Furthermore, the aftershocks we have all experienced are common after large earthquakes and have decreased in size and frequency as expected. Is Beirut itself due for an imminent large >7.0 earthquake? No responsible geologist can or will make such a short-term prediction. All they can do is provide historical evidence for long-term "earthquake frequency." Based on the historical evidence, our area could experience a strong quake sometime in the next 200 years. With this information in mind, Tony provided some common-sense preparedness advice for our leadership team. Given the rock substrate underlying ACS (a good thing), the elevation of our campus 7-15 meters above sea level, and the structural integrity of our buildings, the consensus in the room was that a well-conceived earthquake response plan will go a long way to protecting the ACS community. It's telling that with his comprehensive knowledge of the region's geology and earthquake history, Dr. Nemer lives and works in our neighborhood, with a child at ACS.
Since the first earthquake on February 6, we have been working on updating our earthquake emergency plan. First, we have been coordinating with IC and with AUB regarding our evacuation routes in the event of an earthquake that could potentially trigger a tsunami. There are two scenarios:
After the earthquake is over, we would conduct a complete evacuation of our campus to higher ground. We are working with administrators at IC and AUB to identify two meeting points for ACS students and staff on both campuses. We hope to confirm these locations by next week. We also are planning to conduct a coordinated full earthquake and evacuation drill with IC sometime in the next few weeks.
Once the earthquake is over, if we determine that a tsunami may be imminent and there is not enough time to evacuate to higher ground, we will move all students to higher floors in our buildings. It is unlikely that a tsunami event would cause waters to rise beyond the first floor of each of our buildings. We know we can move students to higher floors if the situation worsens.
Although our Director of Facilities, Ziad El Hdary is an engineer and conducted a thorough inspection of our campus after the recent earthquakes, we have decided to hire an outside engineering to conduct a thorough structural analysis of each building. We know our school buildings are solidly constructed, but it is important to have an additional objective study to confirm this.
I would like to thank Peter Schoonmaker, Outdoor Programs Director and a scientist himself, for summarizing Dr. Nemer's presentation.
Sincerely,
